Anuj Puri is Chairman, ANAROCK Property Consultants. He has over 30 years of experience in multi-disciplinary advisory and transactions ranging from real estate to social development projects. Expertise in planning, undertaking demand assessment studies and transaction services including marketing strategies based on technical real estate market analysis, feasibility studies, program requirement derivation and fund and investor sourcing.
The first half of FY23 was a highly upbeat period for the residential market in the top 7 cities, allying fears that housing sales could be impacted by rising property prices and interest rates. The numbers show that Diwali came early for developers, with homes worth INR 1.56 lakh Crore sold across the top 7 cities in H1 FY23.
The residential sector looks forward to further support beyond the mainstay demands of industry status, easy availability of finance, and GST rates reduction. In the upcoming Union Budget 2022-23, some significant moves would help spur up residential demand include:
Reviewing the overall performance of the Indian residential real estate market in 2021 shows a definite upswing. Between Jan - Sep 2021, 1.63 lakh units of new residential supply were added across the top 7 Indian cities - 27% higher than 2020 full year supply - and 1.45 lakh units were sold - 5% higher than in the whole of 2020.
Predictably, the secondary sales or resale housing market proved far more vulnerable to demonetization than the primary market. This segment, along with luxury housing, historically drew the bulk of 'cash components'.
Over USD 26 billion of FDI in the construction development between April 2000 and June 2021, massive infrastructure spending of USD 1.35 trillion, and a buzzing IPO market that had raised over INR 42,000 crores in the past 3 years have been strong enablers of growth.
Redevelopment projects in Mumbai may begin picking up pace again. There are no real alternatives - the biggest problem for real estate development in Mumbai is land scarcity. There are very few opportunities for greenfield developments in the more valuable city centre areas.
Of 36,260 units launched in Q2 2021 in the top 7 cities, the premium segment (priced b/w INR 80 lakh to INR 1.5 Cr) had the highest share (approx. 13,130 units); mid-segment (INR 40-80 lakh) had a 32% share (nearly 11,760 units)
Hyderabad, Bengaluru & Chennai together comprised a 72% share of total new premium supply in the second quarter
Covid-19 dents affordable housing supply share – reduced to 20% (approx. 7,230 units) as of Q2 2021
In the pre-COVID-19 period, affordable housing supply share dominated; post-pandemic, share drops dramatically from 40% in 2019 to 30% in 2020 – at 20% in Q2 2021
Developers strategically following trends – buyers of affordable homes most affected economically by COVID-19; high unsold affordable housing stock another concern at 33% of total 6.54 lakh unsold units in top 7 cities by Q2 2021-end
The pandemic has significantly altered previously dominant trends in the Indian residential market. Notably, it has dented the overall new affordable housing supply share across the top 7 cities. Latest ANAROCK research indicates that out of the total new launches of approx.