• New housing supply estimated at 1,93,600 units by 2018 end; an annual increase of 32%
  • Housing sales in 2018 estimated at 2,45,500 units; an annual increase of 16%
  • NBFC crisis holds sector at gunpoint as 2019 begins

Anuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Property Consultants

The year 2018 was a veritable roller-coaster ride for Indian real estate. Despite signs of recovery across segments, the liquidity crunch – further exacerbated by the NBFC crisis – put all industry stakeholders on tenterhooks.

Consolidation via mergers and acquisitions was rife in all sectors, completely redefining the concept of ‘financial health’ among players and drawing clear lines on who will survive the heat. This process will continue throughout 2019, as well.

Despite all odds, economic indicators remained positive with India’s GDP growth rate pegged at 7.3% in 2018. CPI inflation, a major concern in the past, remained reined in at a manageable 4.8%.

GDP growth and contained inflation are generally considered panacea for most real estate woes. However, it took a lot more than that for real estate to retain even a semblance of an even keel in 2018.

  • Luxury supply increased by 29% since 2017
  • Of 12,090 units new luxury supply in 2018, MMR launched nearly 6,310
  • NCR – 2,650, Hyderabad – 1,585, Kolkata – 160; Pune saw least supply with less than 100 units

Prashant Thakur, Head – Research, ANAROCK Property Consultants

Catering to a very niche clientele and not the masses, luxury housing has evolved at a rapid pace in India. The nouveau riche (newly rich) prefer discreet opulence over the commonplace, and look for experiential luxury, both at a unit and project level.

From start-up founders to high-salaried professionals, high net-worth individuals are prompting developers who understand the luxury segment to think increasingly out of the box and deliver something unique and aspirational.

On the ‘other side of the fence’, affordable housing has taken centre-stage in India over the past 3-4 years, not only because of the massive demand for it but also due to the concerted efforts by the Government to cater to it. Against such a backdrop, there are rising speculations that luxury housing is losing its sheen to the affordable segment.

Anuj Puri

  • MMR, Pune, Bengaluru & Chennai accounted for 76% of the new supply
  • MMR saw max. jump in buys with 16% increase, NCR & Hyderabad lowest with 2% increase
  • Overall unsold housing inventory reduced by 2%

As anticipated, the real estate market across the top 7 cities in Q3 2018 stayed subdued. The quarter saw a meagre 3% increase in the overall fresh housing supply as against the preceding quarter.

These new launches were largely dominated by the lower-budget segment (< Rs. 40 lakh) with nearly 42% of the total new supply. 33% launches were in the mid segment (Rs. 40-80 lakh) and the remaining 25% in the luxury and ultra-luxury segments.

The third quarter of the year is usually a lull period due to the 15-day shraddh period, which is considered inauspicious for buying property. Consequently, builders keep new projects on hold for the ensuing festive season beginning early October.

In terms of purchases, there was a slight increase of 9% during the Q3 as compared to Q2 2018 across the top 7 cities of India.

51% home buyers seek rental income, 39% prefer affordable housing

  • 39% prefer to invest in housing priced below ₹40 Lakh
  • 68% seek property for end-use; 52% favour compact 2BHKs
  • 51% of investors focused on rental returns

As many as 81% of polled aspiring homebuyers acknowledge Indian real estate’s improved and improving transparency, discipline and accountability post implementation of regulatory policies, reveals ANAROCK Property Consultants’ Real Estate Consumer Outlook: H2 2018.

Anuj PuriCommenting on the survey, Anuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Property Consultants says, “With the now discernible impact of RERA, DeMo and GST, housing sales are seeing an upward trajectory in 2018 q-o-q. New launches have also gone up this year with affordable housing witnessing significant growth. NRIs see India’s rebooted real estate market environment conducive enough to justify property investments, especially on the back of the depreciating rupee.”

  • Nearly 69% of prospective buyers are looking to buy property for end-use
  • 84% are looking for homes which are either ready-to-move-in or slated to complete in the next 6 months.

PRESS RELEASE

80% Of Navi Mumbai Launches Affordable-To-Mid-Segment – ANAROCK-CREDAI Report

  • Housing sales have exceeded launches in the past two years
  • At 36,400 units, Navi Mumbai has only 15% of MMR’s overall unsold supply
  • Navi Mumbai ranks 2nd in Ease of Living out of 111 cities, surpassing Greater Mumbai & Thane

Navi Mumbai, 5 October 2018: Nearly 80% of the overall residential project launches in Navi Mumbai from 2013 to H1 2018 are in the affordable (< INR 40 Lakh) and mid-segment (INR 40 Lakh – INR 80 Lakh) budget range, states a report by ANAROCK Property Consultants and CREDAI.

The report ‘Navi Mumbai – City of Possibilities‘ was released at the Capital Connect event organized by CREDAI BANM in Vashi, Navi Mumbai today.

Anuj PuriAnuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Property Consultants says, “If we focus on the unsold inventory, it emerges that Navi Mumbai has a mere 15% of the overall pent-up housing stock in MMR.

Anuj PuriAnuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Property Consultants

  • Among the top 7 cities, MMR saw most new  launches – nearly 13,600 units & highest sales at 15,200 units in Q2 2018
  • 17,220 promoters and 15,550 agents under MahaRERA – highest RERA registration Pan India
  • Stamp duty increase may be a slight dampener in the short-term

On the back of critical policy reforms like DeMo, RERA and GST, 2018 is seeing both sales and new supply picking up across cities. Interestingly, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) leads this trend.

ANAROCK data indicates that out of the total new housing supply of around 50,100 units in Q2 2018 across the top 7 cities, MMR saw the highest number of new launches with nearly 13,600 new units – a 59% increase against the preceding quarter.

In terms of sales too, MMR clocked the maximum housing sales with approximately 15,200 units being sold in Q2 2018 – an increase of 26% against Q1 2018.

MMR’s top 3 micro markets across budget ranges 2017 – Q2 2018: 

Affordable Segment (<

Prashant ThakurPrashant Thakur, Head – Research, ANAROCK Property Consultants 

Ambernath, a well-developed industrial micro market of Thane district, is famous for the wealth of medium-to-large scale industries in its purview.

The locality is bisected into east and west sections by the central suburb railway line that starts from Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus (CSMT) and passes via Thane, Kalyan and ends at Khopoli.

Ambernath’s growth took off when the Government established a large Ordinance factory (OFA) and a Machine Prototype Factory (MPF) here. These industries prompted residential real estate developments and also encouraged other medium-to-large scale industries to establish their manufacturing base in the city.

With the rapid industrialization of Ambernath-Badlapur MIDC area and the excellent central railway line connectivity between Thane, Kalyan and Ulhasnagar, working professionals of these micro markets see Ambernath as an affordable option to meet their housing needs. Thus, Ambernath is transforming into one of the major affordable housing destinations of MMR.

Connectivity

  • Road: Ambernath has an excellent connectivity to Kalyan via Maharashtra SH 80 and Thane via NH 160. It is connected to Pune via Bengaluru –

Anuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Property Consultants

In any discussion about affordable housing in India today, the fact that a lot of such housing is actually lying vacant is bound to crop up.

One may point out that, especially with the Government’s avowed intention of providing Housing for All by 2022, this supply should logically go towards bridging the affordable housing gap.

However, it is obviously not that simple or it would already have happened. A lot of this budget housing inventory is lying vacant for good reasons.

Before we get into the reason, let’s take a quick look at the numbers. Around 237,000 units across top 7 cities belonging to the affordable housing segment (units priced less than INR 40 lakh) were unsold as of Q2 CY 2018.

This number pertains only to the unsold units of organized private developers and does not include Government housing schemes, which essentially means that the number would go further northwards if those are included.

Given the unrelenting requirements for urban budget housing, inventory that has been created in the major cities by seasoned organized players who know what they’re doing will eventually get absorbed.

  • Below ₹ 40 lakh budget category rules supply, followed by mid-segment (₹ 40-80 lakh)
  • Of all supply between 2013-Q1 2018, affordable housing contributed 64%, mid-segment 23%

ANAROCK Property Consultants’ latest report ‘Kolkata: The Shining Star of the East’ analyzes the city’s major real estate trends, and highlights that affordable housing has gained significant traction in Kolkata.

The state government has given a major push to this segment with its a new housing scheme ‘Nijoshree’, which provides homes under two categories to people whose monthly income is < ₹ 15,000 and < ₹ 30,000.

An important finding of this report is that a majority of the supply of housing units is in < ₹ 40 lakh budget. In terms of unsold inventory ageing pattern, only 9% of the units are ready-to-move-in, whereas more than 50% units are due to complete in the next 2 years.

  • Approximately 1,19,000 units launched in Kolkata between 2013 and Q1 2018, of which 68% were added between 2013 and 2015.
  • Kolkata accounted for 7% of the overall unsold inventory across the top 7 cities of India as of Q1 2018.

Housing Growth

Affordable Housing Keeps the Momentum Going  

Anuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Property Consultants

  • Unsold inventory down 2% from 7.11 lakh units in Q1 2018 to 7.0 lakh units in Q2 2018
  • Unsold inventory declined 10% from 7.7 lakh units in Q4 2017

 There has been a whopping 50% jump in overall new housing launches in Q2 2018 over the preceding quarter, with the maximum supply in the affordable segment (< ₹ 40 lakh).

Interestingly, the affordable housing supply increased by 100% in Q2 2018 over Q1 2018, and this supply has led the overall growth.

On the sales front too, housing sales across the top 7 cities of India also rose by 24% compared to Q1 2018, indicating that hitherto abstaining home buyers are back on the market.

Developers are working hard on clearing unsold inventory with attractive schemes, freebies and discounts. Moreover, the positive impact of the policy reforms including RERA and GST have begun to bear fruit.